Neither Good or Bad...It is what it is

MSN Money Blog

I didn't write the headline for MSN Money Blog---and I  think "doomed" is a little harsh, but the business of hope seems less productive than sorting out the facts and finding truth so I'm sharing the information.

Economic indicators are at best sign posts which tell part of the story.  When put together indicators offer some ideas on the direction we are heading. They probably are not equal to mileage/distance posts in that an economic indicator can't accurately tell us how far we are from where we came or how close we are to a destination. Unlike a highway, the road of recovery can change--- with no notice we can end up in the ditch or set back.

Presented individually some indicators are props for false expectations. Before concluding that I am speaking doom and gloom, consider this--- I am in favor of recovery or rebuilding for my personal stake too. If people can't sell and can't or won't buy houses, I'm out of work. I like to work. I intend to be effective by being reasonable and working with facts not spreading illusions.

This is my opinion, based on what I am sorting out from the data: The housing market we experienced from 1999 through 2006 was an anomaly--a deviation from the norm. And, that deviation was fueled by failure to adhere to sound business principles. This new market is not a deviation from what normally happens when growth reaches its pinnacle. Drop off had to happen. How far we drop or how fast the fall is unpleasant but not unprecedented.

What we do in this economy is our choice. I choose to accept the reality and look for solutions which work for individuals. There is no one size fits all answer. To sell or not sell is determined by personal situations. I don't know if a person should sell today or wait for a better economy in the spring. I don't think we will see significant change when the snow melts, but I do know what to expect today---demand by buyers for top condition and relatively low prices. Because sentiment lags behind economic indicators I would not expect more enthusiasm until we have steady employment growth over many months. Conservative, careful will be the mindset of people burned once. And that's good.