Caution Ahead

Driving to my office on University Ave there are two large orange road signs that warn: "Rough Road". Sure enough, my journey is rough and bumpy, and that's just the part of the going that's covered in buckled asphalt. Once I get to the office the rough road continues and I am just as careful guiding clients as I am driving my car.

Even the best economic interpreters can not be sure that their analysis of indicators means more than an educated guess of what's ahead. All educated opinions use some understanding of probability to reach a conclusion. Since the economic calamity is unprecedented, it's reasonable to believe the probability of measurable recovery is, well...iffy.

Caution has always been a prudent attribute. In the days of rapid appreciation caution was snickered at and those who threw caution to the wind were the mavericks who captured attention. As we idolized we emulated, and speaking as one person who threw too much to the wind, I'm practicing what was preached to me---Proceed with caution. "Think ahead" was my Dad's favorite phrase. As I think ahead, I'm going to error on the side of caution and assume there are more rough roads ahead.

What that means in my business is---let the other guy have the steal of the year. Let the other guy pay a little more than he should. If it's too good to be true--it is.